A minor setback to a major comeback. After a great showing last week, I have set my new season low with 31% accuracy. However, if you've been riding with me than we are still up 3 games through week 3 and if you faded the games I said to fade then we are up much more. We're on to week 4!
Opening line: Patriots, -9 points
Pick: Patriots, -9
Following a near loss to the lowly Houston Texans, the Patriots will likely rebound at home. Cam Newton has been laughably bad and Tom Brady has been laughably good. I expect this to be a blowout.
Opening line: Falcons, -8 points
Pick: Falcons, -8
The Bills just thrashed one of the best teams in the AFC last week. An enormous upset, although of course the Vegas lines basically predicted it. Bills won in Buffalo which is good, but now they will be traveling to the Peach State to take on last years NFC champion.
Opening line: Chiefs, -6.5 points
Pick: Redskins +6.5
Redskins haven't lost a game since week 1 against the Eagles (who are actually a good team). The Chiefs have been the hottest team in football, but all flames must be extinguished. Look for Alex Smith to come crashing back down to his usual mediocre play at home this week against an emerging Redskins team.
Opening line: Seahawks, -13 points
Pick: Seahawks -13
Can the Colts overcome their lack of talent, coaching, and overall ability to defeat one of the NFC's best in arguably the toughest stadium in football? Probably not.
Opening line: Cowboys, -6.5
Pick: Rams +6.5
The Rams appear to be actually good this year. Playing at home they don't recieve much of an advantage and they have taken care of their opportunities on the road. This tilt against the Cowboys will be the closest the Rams get to St. Louis all year which will bring many Rams fans into Jerry World. I expect a Cowboys win, but I think it will be closer to a 24-20 type of score.
Opening line: Packers, -7 points
Pick: Packers -7
I can only imagine how hard the Packers will be worked this week in practice following a narrow overtime victory over the lowly Bengals. Meanwhile, the Bears should be riding high after beating one of the AFCs best as a 7 point underdog. With the game being in GB, I expect a Packers rebound and a statement win here.
Opening line: Saints -2.5 points
Pick: Saints -2.5
I'm rocking with the team with the better quarterback. Jay Cutler was horrific in last weeks lost to the Jets.
Opening line: Cardinals -7
Pick: Cardinals -7
Cardinals are a better team than people seem to realize. West Coast teams historically struggle when playing early games at the East coast and the Cardinals were not immune to that. In their first game at home, they had a great showing against the Cowboys. Look for them to continue to ascend at home against the 49ers.
Opening line: Broncos -3
Pick: Broncos -3
This is a big fade for me, but if I had to pick I will go with the home team coming off an embarrasing loss. Raiders looked horrible in their match against the Redskins and have some new faces on the injury report as a result. Broncos D will look to rebound after letting in nearly 30 points to the Bills.
Opening line: Chargers -1
Pick: Eagles +1
My week 4 Lock of the Week I would even tease this line in Philly's favor. LAC being at home does worry me, but then I remember that the Chargers basically play in a high school soccer stadium and have no advantage from their crowd. Philly, meanwhile, is one of the hottest teams in football and had a masterful display against the Giants.
Opening line: Titans -1.5 points
Pick: Titans -1.5
Plain and simple, the Texans got lucky to compete so closely with the Patriots. Look for Houston and rookie QB Deshaun Watson to come crashing back down to earth against a talented Titans team.
Opening line: Steelers, -2.5 points
Pick: Steelers -2.5
Major fade alert. This rivalry game always gets extremely intense and emotional. Couple that up with the Steelers crappy performance against the Bears and the Ravens embarrasing loss in London to the Jaguars, each team will be playing hard. Ravens look lost with the injuries they have sustained to key parts in their offense, so I will rock with the Blitzburgh Steelers pressuring Flacco.
Opening line: Bengals, -3 points
Pick: Bengals -3
Bengals return Vontaze Burfict to an improving defense, and will look to continue their streak of actually good football following a narrow defeat to last years NFC North Champions. The Browns, meanwhile, just got embarrassed by the lowly Colts.
Opening line: Jaguars, -3.5 points
Pick: Jaguars -3.5
I'd be careful not to fall for the Jets trap again, but this just looks too easy. Jaguars look like they are actually a good football team after blowing out the Ravens in London. Meanwhile, now that the Jets have gotten their 1 win, they are likely done trying for the season as they tank for a QB. I would go hard on JAX this week and would even tease this line up to 7 or 8 points!
Opening line: Vikings, -3 points
Pick: Lions +3
As long as Vegas keeps sleeping on the Lions, I will continue to profit off of them. Lions nearly beat the NFC champion Falcons last week, and have had strong showings in each of their first 3 games. Their offense is humming and their defense has the 2nd most turnovers in the league. I expect this line to move significantly when Bradfords status is released, but even so I like the Lions to rebound big following a narrow loss and a screwjob by the NFL.