Quarterback: Josh Rosen UCLA
- There were a lot of players to choose from in this category, but I am going to lean towards the more finished product Josh Rosen. His ceiling talent wise is not as high as say Sam Darnold who is still developing or Josh Allen with the amazing arm talent. Yes, his skills as a quarterback between accuracy, mechanics, and ability to read defenses is the best in the class. I do worry however, about is "me" first mentality that has him being labeled as aloof or other similar words. I know that is not a death sentence, but personally I want my quarterbacks all in and want to work hard as a team. My other big red flag with him is his size and already checkered medical history. Sure he will probably have better protection in the NFL, but he is also going to go up against stiffer defenses. I also think his fit is a bigger deal than other quarterbacks. If he goes to a tumoltous franchise like the Jets, Browns, or others he can rule the locker room and bring down the moral. I can also see him running through coaches. Sure I think Mayfield and Allen can be busts too, but Rosen would be more surprising if he did and the chances are in my opinion higher than people think.
Running Back: Saquon Barkley Penn St
- Boom! I said it, I think the best player everyone loves will turn into a bust. Not an out right bust, but one that never fulfills the promise of being the best back in the league or a total game changer. People think he is a big do it all back like Zeke Elliott or a bulldozer like Leonard Fournette, but to me his skill set is more along the lines of a bigger Reggie Bush. This past season he only eclipsed 100 rushing yards five times and had a total of 100 all purpose yards another three games. The most touches he had in a single game last year was 30, but then after that he was only ever at 25 or more another two games. All in all he is not a bell cow back or a true between the tackles runner that you want in the NFL. I do think he will be better than Christian McCaffrey who disappointed overall last season, but if anything I think the two are really comparable. Would he be considered a bust if backs taken in the 3rd round or later turn out to be better? I do since he was taken at such a premium spot.
Wide Receiver: None
- This is such a bad receiver draft that it would be tough to single out one as a bust since they really will not have that high of expectations surrounding any of them. Maybe Courtland Sutton or Calvin Ridley will not pan out, but it really would not be that shocking.
Tight End: Mike Gesicki Penn St
- I know, it looks like I have a bias against Penn St players, but these are the only two I really have doubts in at the next level. Coach James Franklin is known for being an offensive guy, but none of his guys on that side of the ball really panned out yet in the NFL. I can see Gesicki being over drafted after a strong Pro Day and Combine where he got to flash his athleticism without pads. However, his numbers in college were pedestrian at best for a player of his size and speed. There were also times he was easily beat out for jump balls and gave up on routes. Teams are already questioning his toughness and if he gets taken in the 2nd round I think that team will be wasting a rather solid draft choice.
Offensive Line: Connor Williams Texas
- I never liked Connor Williams as a first round selection and I think more people are getting on my side now. However, there are still some that think he has a shot to be taken high. He is not a left tackle with his weak base and lack of technique out there. Williams showed nothing at Texas the past two seasons to warrant a high draft selection outside of the hope of his potential panning out. Much, like Erik Flowers was coming out of Miami and ended up busting. I know Williams has terrific athleticism, but he needs to be coached up and needs a lot of time in a weight room. I just do not see it and think he can be a wasted pick.
Defensive Line: Taven Bryan DT Florida
- I have a bias against prospects who come from two high profile schools one being Ohio St and now the other being Florida. Over the years Florida has sent a ton of under developed and talented players to the pros, but none of them have really turned into true studs. From all the way back to Matt Elam to Shariff Floyd to Teez Tabor to Quincy Wilson to D.J. Humphries and many others. I think Bryan is the next to be a disappointing first rounder much like Floyd was. He has an athletic profile that rivals J.J. Watt\'s, but his motor, technique, and strength are severely lacking compared to the All-Pro. I will be shocked if he turns into anything significant.
Linebackers: Tremaine Edmunds Virginia Tech
- I think Edmunds being a high first round is a bit crazy seeing as how he is only a 19 year old player with limited real playing time. Of course, there is a ton of potential with his athletic profile and length. However, I think there is too many variables for him to not become a bust. First he needs to mature and improve on his IQ by a lot. Then he needs to get stronger, and more refined in his technique. All while getting thrown to the wolves early if he gets selected in the top 10 picks. That is a lot for such a young player and more often than not young men really do not hit their stride until they hit 23 to 24. By then he will be looking for a new contract elsewhere most likely. I think taking him top 10 is too steep of a gamble.
Corner: Denzel Ward Ohio St
- Remember Ohio State players are another group of prospects I worry about. Yes, occasionally a Joey Bosa, Marshon Lattimore, and Taylor Decker pan out. However, there is always a Gareon Conley, Eli Apple, Von Bell, Adolphus Washington, Darron Lee, Braxton Miller, Terrell Pryor, Carlos Hyde and others that have just not panned out. I feel like Urban Meyer\'s new strategy to coaching is just bringing in the top talents and letting them play as soon as he can. Nowhere does he bother with actually developing them and as long as he wins games and gets these kids picked in the first round he is happy. To me there is noway I would make Ward a top 10 pick and many are saying this just because Lattimore worked out. First, he is not as proven as Lattimore was as a multi year starter at Ohio St. Second, he is nowhere as big and long as Lattimore. Lastly, his size alone should not have him as a top 10 pick. You want a guy with size, athleticism, and speed on the outside. Ward only has the last two and at his size he can be picked apart like Vernon Hargreaves has been at a similar size. I can see him being a terrible pick in the end.
- I generally like all of these safeties and lately they do tend to go lower than expected. The only one with some bust potential is Minkah Fitzpatrick due to scheme fits and coaching fits. However, he and all the rest seem really talented to me. Especially, in the top half.